Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Sweeny (90.9%) exceeds our estimate (88%).
• • Required break-even odds for Sweeny are ~1.136; current 1.10 is too short.

Pros

• + Sweeny has a stronger win record and larger match sample on relevant surfaces.
• + Ziegann’s recent form is weak, lowering his realistic upset chances.

Cons

• - Sweeny’s true probability is close to market-implied; small estimation errors could flip value assessment.
• - Limited granular match-level context (injury/lineup specifics) increases uncertainty.

Details

We compare the bookmakers' prices to our internal win-probability estimate. The market gives Dane Sweeny 1.10 (implied 90.91%) and Sam Ryan Ziegann 6.25 (implied 16.00%). Based on career records (Sweeny 42-29 vs Ziegann 11-20), surface alignment (both favor hard courts), and recent form (Ziegann showing a run of losses while Sweeny has a stronger winning history and larger match sample), we estimate Dane Sweeny’s true chance at ~88.0%. At decimal 1.10 (odds used for EV), that implies EV = 0.88 * 1.10 - 1 = -0.032 (negative), so the favourite is over-priced for profit. Conversely, Ziegann would need a true win probability >16.0% to be profitable at 6.25; our estimate for him (~12.0%) is below that, so the long price also offers no value. Because neither side yields positive expected value at current prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Career records and overall head-to-head quality favor Dane Sweeny (larger match sample and higher win rate).
• • Both players have experience on hard courts; surface does not materially shift the edge away from Sweeny.
• • Market price (1.10) implies a higher probability (90.9%) than our estimate (88%), producing negative EV; the underdog at 6.25 needs >16.0% true chance which we do not assign.