Highlights

• • De Jonge implied probability at 2.45 (40.8%) is below our estimated 43.5% win chance
• • Estimated EV is +6.6% on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Market appears to overstate Beauge's advantage — value on the underdog
• + Both players have clay experience so surface mismatch is limited

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to minor changes in the true-win estimate
• - Limited direct matchup/H2H and contextual data increases outcome variance

Details

We see the market strongly favors Maxence Beauge at 1.505 (implied win probability ~66.4%) while Daniel De Jonge is available at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%). Using the available career and recent-form data — De Jonge career win rate ~42.5% (51/120) and Beauge ~45.4% (127/280) with both players having clay experience — the pure career numbers give De Jonge a baseline win probability slightly above the market-implied 40.8%. Adjusting for small sample noise and Beauge's marginally better overall record but not a decisive superiority on the surface, we estimate De Jonge's true win probability at 43.5%. At that probability, the 2.45 quote yields positive expected value (EV = 0.066), so the home side represents value versus the current market price. We remain cautious because margins are small and data is limited, so this is a modest value play rather than a high-confidence pick.

Key factors

• • De Jonge career win rate (~42.5%) slightly exceeds the market-implied chance at 2.45
• • Beauge has a marginally better career record but not a dominant edge on clay
• • Small sample sizes and limited recent form make estimates uncertain