Daniel De Jonge vs Mikel Martinez

Highlights

• • Current odds 1.274 understate De Jonge's chance according to provided records
• • Martinez's 0-7 career record on the provided data makes him a heavy underdog

Pros

• + Positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Surface and form data favor the home player

Cons

• - Small-sample records at ITF level increase variance and uncertainty
• - No head-to-head data and limited recent match detail could hide situational factors

Details

We see the market pricing Daniel De Jonge at 1.274 (implied win probability ~78.6%). Based on the provided profiles, De Jonge has substantially more match experience (15-18 career record across surfaces including clay) while Mikel Martinez is 0-7 in his listed career and has recent losses on clay. Given the surface (outdoor clay) and Martinez's winless record, we assess De Jonge's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 78.6%. We estimate De Jonge's true probability at 86% (0.86). At the quoted price of 1.274 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.86 * 1.274 - 1 ≈ 0.096), so the home side contains value versus the current market price. We note small sample sizes and typical variance at ITF level as risk factors but, given the magnitude of Martinez's negatives (0-7) and De Jonge's greater experience on clay, the price appears mispriced in favor of backing De Jonge.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (78.6%) vs our estimate (86%) shows value
• • De Jonge has significantly more match experience and wins on clay
• • Mikel Martinez has a 0-7 recorded career mark and recent losses on clay