Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied probability: 88.5% at 1.13
• • Our estimated probability: 92.0%, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Low variance match dynamics expected when a heavy favorite is involved

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈4% ROI) — sensitive to small estimation error
• - Short-priced favorites carry upset risk; a single upset wipes the ROI

Details

We estimate Daniel Evans is a clear favorite on outdoor hard courts and the market price (1.13) already reflects heavy favoritism. The bookmaker-implied probability at 1.13 is 88.5% (1/1.13). Based on surface suitability, lack of adverse conditions or injury data in the research, and the substantial market gap versus Filip Peliwo, we estimate Evans' true win probability at 92.0%. Comparing our 92.0% estimate to the implied 88.5% shows a positive edge. At the quoted decimal 1.13, the expected value is 0.92 * 1.13 - 1 = +0.0396 (≈ +3.96% ROI), which we view as a small but genuine value opportunity given the low volatility of a heavy favorite in this matchup. We use the available current moneyline 1.13 for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Outdoor hard surface (listed) which favors the favorite's game profile
• • No injuries or adverse conditions reported in the provided research
• • Large market gap — implied probability (88.5%) is below our estimated true probability (92.0%)