Daniel Evans vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (53.2%) is lower than our estimated 58% for Cerundolo
• • Cerundolo's larger and stronger recent sample on hard courts supports the edge

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the current common market price
• + Cerundolo shows stronger recent results and more matches suggesting better form and consistency

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and contextual detail in the Research increases uncertainty
• - Tennis match variance and potential unreported factors (injury, travel, match-up specifics) can negate short-term edges

Details

We estimate Juan Manuel Cerundolo is the better value at the quoted 1.88. Cerundolo's recent win-loss profile (56-30 across more matches) and continued activity at hard-court events (including a US Open appearance) suggest a higher baseline win probability than Daniel Evans, whose 26-28 record indicates inconsistency. The market price of 1.88 implies a 53.2% chance; our model-weighted assessment (accounting for sample size, recent form on hard, and relative win rates in the Research) places Cerundolo around 58% to win. That gap produces positive expected value at the current price (EV = 0.58 * 1.88 - 1 ≈ 0.090), so the away side represents a profitable value bet under our assumptions.

Key factors

• • Cerundolo's stronger overall win-rate in the provided sample (56-30 vs 26-28)
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity; Cerundolo has recent Grand Slam (US Open) matches suggesting form on big hard courts
• • Market price (1.88) implies ~53.2% — below our estimated 58% true win probability