Highlights

• • Crawford stronger career record and higher win rate
• • Current odds understate Crawford's chance by ~4 percentage points

Pros

• + Clear statistical edge from career win-rate differential
• + Price (1.769) exceeds our fair odds threshold (1.652)

Cons

• - No detailed head-to-head data provided; single-match variance can be high
• - Recent form items are mixed for both players, increasing uncertainty

Details

We view Oliver Crawford as the value side. Crawford's career winning rate (62-22) is substantially stronger than Daniel Evans (26-28), and both have experience on grass so surface doesn't materially favor Evans. Converting career win rates into a comparative probability gives Crawford ~60.5% chance to win this matchup. At the current away price of 1.769 this implies a positive edge: EV = 0.605 * 1.769 - 1 ≈ +0.070 (≈7.0% ROI). The market-implied probability at 1.769 is 56.6%, below our estimated 60.5%, so we identify value on Crawford. We note limited direct matchup and potential noise from recent mixed form, so our projection is conservative.

Key factors

• • Oliver Crawford's substantially superior career win-rate (62-22) vs Evans (26-28)
• • Both players have grass experience; no surface edge for Evans
• • Current market price (1.769) implies ~56.6% win chance vs our ~60.5% estimate