Daniel Evans vs Oliver Crawford
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Oliver Crawford at 1.943 given his much stronger season record and a modeled win probability of 60%, yielding ~16.6% expected ROI.
Highlights
- • Crawford substantially better season record (62-22) than Evans (26-28)
- • Current price 1.943 exceeds our fair price threshold (1.667) for Crawford
Pros
- + Clear statistical edge in season win-loss record favoring Crawford
- + Price contains room for a positive expected value at our probability estimate
Cons
- - Limited match-level context (no H2H or detailed recent form/injury notes provided)
- - Challenger events can be volatile and single-match variance on grass is high
Details
We compare market-implied probabilities to our modelled win chance. The market prices this as near-even (Crawford implied 51.5% at 1.943; Evans implied 53.3% at 1.877) despite a clear season-long performance gap in the provided data: Crawford 62-22 vs Evans 26-28. Given Crawford's substantially better win-loss record and both players having grass experience, we estimate Crawford's true win probability at 60.0%. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price is 1.667, so the available 1.943 represents positive value. EV calculation: 0.60 * 1.943 - 1 = 0.166 (16.6% ROI per unit stake). We use the provided current away price (1.943) for the EV computation.
Key factors
- • Season records: Crawford 62-22 vs Evans 26-28 indicating clear form advantage
- • Both players have grass experience; Crawford's higher overall win rate implies better conversion on surface
- • Market is pricing a near coin-flip; this creates value if Crawford is materially stronger as the season records suggest