Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Buse ≈ 67.0%; our estimated true probability ≈ 66.0%
• • Current price for Buse (1.493) produces a small negative ROI (~-1.46% per unit)

Pros

• + Buse: has grass experience which is relevant on this surface
• + Merida: superior overall win-rate and strong Challenger-level results

Cons

• - Merida: no recorded grass matches which increases uncertainty on this surface
• - Edge is small — market price is close to our estimate, so potential value is limited or non-existent

Details

We compared market prices to a probability estimate that weighs career win-rates and surface experience. Ignacio Buse is the market favorite at 1.493 (implied ~67.0%) and is the only player with recorded grass experience; Daniel Merida Aguilar has a stronger overall win rate but no listed grass matches. Balancing Merida's higher career win percentage (49-23) against the surface edge for Buse, we estimate Buse's true win probability at 66.0%. That implies minimum fair odds of ~1.515 for Buse, but the current best widely-available price is 1.493, which yields a slight negative EV. Therefore no side shows positive expected value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Ignacio Buse has recorded grass experience while Daniel Merida Aguilar does not
• • Merida Aguilar's superior overall win-rate (49-23) suggests baseline quality
• • Market heavily favors Buse (1.493); our estimated probability (~66%) is close to the market so no positive edge