Highlights

• • Faria shows recent clay success in Seville events
• • Current away odds (1.971) imply a lower chance than our estimate, creating value

Pros

• + Experienced player with a solid career win rate
• + Demonstrated recent form on the match surface (clay)

Cons

• - Very limited/no public information on the home player (Daniel Merida Aguilar)
• - No head-to-head data and small-sample uncertainty for recent results

Details

We prefer Jaime Faria (away). Faria's career record (145-101) and recent Seville clay results indicate a clay-capable player with experience at this level; the available research shows recent wins in Seville on clay, which is the surface for this match. The market currently prices Faria at 1.971 (implied win probability 50.7%), but based on his experience, win rate and recent clay form we estimate his true win probability at 56.0%. That implied market probability understates his chances, creating value at the current away price. We note uncertainty due to limited information on Daniel Merida Aguilar and no H2H data, but the evidence we have points to Faria being the stronger clay-court pick and therefore offering positive expected value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Faria's superior career win-loss record and match experience (145-101)
• • Recent wins in Seville on clay indicate current form on this surface
• • Market-implied probability for Faria (50.7%) is below our estimated true probability (56%)