Highlights

• • Milavsky's superior overall record supports a higher true win probability than the odds imply
• • Current price (1.599) converts to ~62.5% implied probability vs our 69% estimate

Pros

• + Clear statistical edge in career win-loss and recent consistency
• + Odds give a >10% positive expected value based on our probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited high-quality grass-surface sample for both players can increase variance
• - Qualifying matches can be volatile and subject to form swings or fatigue

Details

We see value backing Daniel Milavsky at 1.599. The market-implied probability for Milavsky at 1.599 is ~62.5%, but Milavsky's career win rate (38-14) and superior overall form vs Joshua Sheehy (21-23) indicate a materially higher true chance on grass and in Challenger qualifying. Milavsky has shown greater consistency across surfaces and a stronger win-loss record; Sheehy is below .500 and more erratic. Given those factors we estimate Milavsky's true win probability at ~69%, which yields positive expected value versus the market price. Key downside risks are the small-sample nature of grass results and typical volatility in qualifying matches, so we size confidence as medium despite a clear edge at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Substantially better career record (38-14 vs 21-23) implying higher baseline quality
• • Both players have grass experience but Milavsky's consistency favors him in a best-of-3 qualifying match
• • Market-implied probability (≈62.5%) is below our estimated true probability (≈69%) creating value