Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Aubriot ≈ 82.9%; our estimate ≈ 74%
• • Batista's long-term results and recent form make an upset unlikely enough to justify a bet at 4.07

Pros

• + Aubriot has more match experience and a deeper recent match history
• + Surface experience and broader play across surfaces suggests adaptability

Cons

• - Both players have recent losses, so short-term form is not ideal
• - Bookmakers have priced Aubriot very short, eliminating value

Details

We estimate Alexandre Aubriot is the stronger player based on experience (49 matches vs 23) and a substantially better win volume. The market price (1.207) implies ~82.9% win probability, which exceeds our assessed true probability. Given Daniel Batista's poor record (4-19) and recent losses on hard, a large upset would be required to justify the 4.07 on Batista. We estimate Aubriot's true win probability around 74% (0.74), which makes the current favorite price a negative expected-value play (EV = 0.74 * 1.207 - 1 ≈ -0.107). To have positive EV on Aubriot we'd need decimal odds ≤ 1 / 0.74 = 1.351; the current market is far shorter than that, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Alexandre Aubriot has larger sample size and more consistent results across surfaces
• • Daniel Batista's career record is poor (4-19) with weak recent form on hard
• • Bookmaker price for Aubriot (1.207) implies a probability materially above our estimate