Daniel De Jonge vs Joshua Peck

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability: ~24.6%; our estimate: 30%
• • Required odds to break even on our estimate: 3.333; current price 4.07 > required

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current price (≈22% ROI per unit)
• + Underdog pricing appears to overstate the gap given available career records and surface parity

Cons

• - Both players have small sample sizes and inconsistent form — outcome variance is high
• - No detailed injury/H2H data available; assessment relies on limited profile stats

Details

We estimate Joshua Peck's chance of winning at about 30% based on comparative career win rates, surface exposure (both players have clay experience), and recent form at the M15 level where results are mixed but not decisive for Daniel De Jonge. The market-implied probability for Peck at 4.07 is roughly 24.6% (1/4.07), which is lower than our estimated 30% true probability. Using the current away price (4.07) the expected value is 0.30 * 4.07 - 1 = +0.221 (22.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The market appears to over-price the heavy favorite (home 1.212, implied ~82.5%) relative to the modest historical advantage shown by De Jonge, creating value on the underdog at the quoted price. We note the sample sizes are small and both players show inconsistent results at this level, so variance is high; nonetheless, at current widely-available prices the away side offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Peck (24.6%) is below our estimated 30% true win probability
• • Both players have clay experience and inconsistent results at M15 level, increasing variance
• • De Jonge is a clear market favorite but his career record is only modestly better, suggesting possible overpricing