Highlights

• • Market implies Beauge 66.7% but we estimate ~60%
• • Home price 2.45 would require De Jonge to be >40.8% likely to win — we view that as unlikely

Pros

• + Clear rationale comparing implied probabilities to estimated true win chance
• + Conservative stance given small sample sizes and limited matchup data

Cons

• - Research dataset is limited and contains some messy/partial match entries
• - No head-to-head, injury, or in-tournament form details to reduce uncertainty

Details

The market makes Maxence Beauge the clear favorite at 1.50 (implied 66.7%). Our assessment, using the provided career records and recent form, places Beauge's true win probability closer to 60%. Beauge has a modestly better overall record (27-25 vs 15-19), more match volume and recent clay results, but the edge is not large. At our estimated 60% true probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.667; the current 1.50 is too short to offer positive expected value. Daniel De Jonge at 2.45 (implied 40.8%) would need a true win probability >40.8% to be +EV; given his inferior record and limited recent wins we estimate his win probability below that threshold. Therefore no side shows value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Win-loss records: Beauge 27-25 (52 matches) vs De Jonge 15-19 (34 matches)
• • Surface experience & recent clay results favor Beauge slightly
• • Limited size and recency of data increases uncertainty; no H2H provided