Daniel Elahi Galan vs Facundo Diaz Acosta

Highlights

• • Market implies 61.7% for Galan; we estimate 64.0%
• • Positive but modest EV (≈3.7%) at the quoted 1.62

Pros

• + Clear experience and sample-size advantage for Galan
• + Current price (1.62) is above our break-even threshold (1.563) for the estimated probability

Cons

• - Limited recent-match detail and no head-to-head data in the provided research
• - Edge is modest; variance in a single-match tennis wager remains significant

Details

We see the market pricing Daniel Elahi Galan at 1.62 (implied ~61.7%). Based on the research, Galan has a materially larger match sample and a stronger career win rate (40-32) compared with Facundo Diaz Acosta (10-17). Both players show recent losses in the provided recent-match snippets, but Galan's greater experience and higher win rate on the same surfaces (clay/hard/grass) suggest a realistic win probability above the market-implied level. We estimate Galan's true probability at 64.0%, which exceeds the implied 61.7%, producing a positive expected value at the current price. Key uncertainties include limited head-to-head and exact surface/venue effects in the provided data, so our edge is modest but present.

Key factors

• • Galan's larger sample size and superior career win-loss record (40-32 vs 10-17)
• • Market-implied probability (61.7%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (64.0%)
• • Both players show recent losses in the research, so form edge favors the more experienced player