Daniel Milavsky vs Blaise Bicknell
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small but positive edge on Daniel Milavsky at 1.63 because his inferred true win probability (63%) exceeds the market-implied probability (~61.4%).
Highlights
- • Market price: 1.63 (implied 61.35%)
- • Our estimated true probability: 63% → positive EV (~2.7%)
Pros
- + Clearer historical advantage and larger match sample for Milavsky
- + Both players on hard courts where Milavsky has consistent results
Cons
- - Edge is small (EV ≈ 2.7%) — sensitive to variance and limited match-level detail
- - No head-to-head data or detailed injury/fitness info in the provided research
Details
We see value on the home side, Daniel Milavsky. Milavsky has a larger match sample (56 matches) and a stronger overall record (40-15) compared with Blaise Bicknell (18-15 in 33 matches), and both have recent activity on hard courts. The market price of 1.63 implies a win probability of ~61.35%, while our assessment, weighting career win rates, surface familiarity and slightly stronger recent form for Milavsky, gives a true win probability of 63.0%. At that probability the fair price is 1.587 decimal, so the offered 1.63 contains positive expected value (EV = 0.63 * 1.63 - 1 ≈ 0.027). We therefore recommend the home moneyline only because EV > 0 at the current available price.
Key factors
- • Milavsky's larger sample size and higher win percentage (40-15 vs 18-15)
- • Both players have recent activity on hard courts; Milavsky shows slightly stronger recent form
- • Market-implied probability (61.35%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (63%)