Highlights

• • Milavsky: superior career win rate and hard-court exposure
• • Market implies a higher win probability (66.7%) than our estimate (63%), creating negative EV

Pros

• + Clear favorite based on record and surface experience
• + Market favorite price is widely available and liquid

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.50) is too short vs our probability estimate — EV negative
• - Recent form losses for both players and limited direct-comparison data increase uncertainty

Details

We estimate Daniel Milavsky is the stronger player based on a much better overall record (38-14 vs 12-12) and documented hard-court experience, but the market price (home 1.50) implies a 66.7% win probability which is higher than our calibrated view. Using career win rates, surface exposure and recent form (both players showing recent losses), we estimate Milavsky's true win probability at ~63%. At the current home decimal price of 1.50 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.63*1.50 - 1 = -0.055), so there is no value on the favorite. The away price (2.50) implies 40% which overstates Szymkowiak relative to Milavsky; our estimated away probability (~37%) also produces negative EV. Therefore we do not recommend a side at current prices and report the minimum price that would be required to consider betting the favorite.

Key factors

• • Milavsky much stronger career record (38-14) versus Szymkowiak (12-12)
• • Surface fit favors Milavsky (has hard-court experience) while Szymkowiak's recent results are clay-heavy
• • Both players show recent losses; small-sample and form volatility reduce confidence in large probability gaps