Highlights

• • Book market implies Jeran only ~3.5% chance; we rate him ~4.0%
• • Required fair odds for our probability are 25.00; current price 28.43 > 25.00

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge at current odds if our 4.0% probability is accurate
• + Large payout reduces stake sensitivity and rewards variance in lower-tier matches

Cons

• - High uncertainty from limited data and small sample sizes in both players' records
• - Heavy favorite suggests on-paper mismatch; upset probability may be lower than our estimate

Details

We identify value on Aljaz Jeran at 28.43 decimal because the market implies a ~3.52% chance (1/28.43) while our assessment gives him a slightly higher realistic chance (~4.0%). Both players are clay-court participants and Rapagnetta has the stronger overall record, but Jeran's track record (4-21) still allows a non-trivial upset probability at this level of event volatility. Given the tiny favorite price on Rapagnetta (1.027), the line requires Rapagnetta to be effectively certain (≈97.4%) to be fair; we find that unrealistic. Using 4.0% as our estimated true probability for Jeran produces a positive expected value versus the quoted 28.43 price. We acknowledge sample-size noise, variance in lower-tier events, and limited public data, so our probability is conservative relative to the market gap but sufficient to produce positive EV at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market implies Jeran chance ≈3.52% while we estimate ~4.0%
• • Rapagnetta has better overall record, but heavy favorite pricing looks overstated
• • Lower-tier clay events have high variance and upset potential; small samples increase uncertainty