Highlights

• • Market severely overprices Ribecai (implied 86%)
• • Rapagnetta priced too long relative to a conservative true win estimate

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current decimal odds
• + Both players have clay experience — reduces surface-based unknowns

Cons

• - Ribecai has the stronger career record and greater match sample (higher baseline quality)
• - Limited specific recent-form detail and no H2H data increases outcome variance

Details

We see a large market skew toward Michele Ribecai (away) at 1.158, which implies an ~86.3% win probability. That level of pricing requires Ribecai to be an overwhelming favorite. Our read of the available data — career win rates (Rapagnetta 21-34, ~38% career wins; Ribecai 54-47, ~53% career wins), both players having clay experience, and mixed recent form for both — does not support an 86% true probability for Ribecai. We conservatively estimate Daniele Rapagnetta's true win probability at 27%. At the quoted home moneyline of 4.83 (implied 20.7%), that produces positive expected value: EV = 0.27 * 4.83 - 1 = +0.304 (30.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The risk is that Ribecai is the stronger and more experienced player, but the market has overreacted and priced him far above what the limited data justifies. Therefore we recommend backing the home underdog at current prices because the price (4.83) offers significant value versus our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Market implies Ribecai ~86% which is inconsistent with available career win rates
• • Rapagnetta career win rate (~38%) and clay experience justify a materially higher chance than 20.7%
• • No injury or matchup information provided to justify the heavy favorite price