Highlights

• • Market implies ~78% for Fery; we estimate ~75% — favorite is slightly over-priced for bettors.
• • Glinka's lack of grass pedigree reduces his chance despite a large nominal payout.

Pros

• + Clear surface advantage and stronger career win rate for Fery
• + Market is tight around the favorite, reflecting available data — low likelihood of mispricing in our view

Cons

• - If Fery is undervalued relative to our estimate (true p >75%), betting the favorite would be a losing expectation
• - Glinka's price would need a much higher true probability (~26.2%+) to be +EV; available evidence doesn't support that on grass

Details

We estimate Arthur Fery is the stronger player on grass and the market is pricing him at ~78% (1/1.282). Using career win rates and surface profiles from the provided data, we estimate Fery's true win probability at ~75%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.333; the current favorite price of 1.282 is too short to offer positive expected value. Daniil Glinka has fewer grass credentials and, while the underdog price (3.82) superficially looks tempting, the surface and form split reduce our estimate of his outright chance well below the threshold needed to make that price +EV. Therefore we do not recommend taking a side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: match is on grass where Fery has documented experience and Glinka has limited grass history
• • Career win rates: Fery's career winning percentage (33-9) is materially higher than Glinka's (37-21), supporting favoritism
• • Market-implied probability (78%) is slightly above our estimate (75%), leaving no positive EV on the favorite
• • No injury information provided for either player; form snapshots favor Fery on grass