Highlights

• • Market overpriced Billy Harris relative to provided win-loss profiles
• • Glinka's superior career record suggests underpricing on grass despite less grass history

Pros

• + Higher overall win rate and recent tournament form support a better-than-implied chance
• + Current price (2.57) is above our fair threshold (2.326), yielding positive EV

Cons

• - Glinka has less documented grass experience than Harris, which limits confidence
• - Research dataset lacks head-to-head and detailed match-by-match grass performance, increasing uncertainty

Details

The market strongly favors Billy Harris at decimal 1.532 (implied win probability ~65.3%) while Daniil Glinka is priced at 2.57 (implied ~38.9%). We adjust the market probability using only the provided player data: Glinka's overall career win rate (37-21, ~63.8%) is materially better than Harris's (34-41, ~45.4%), indicating a stronger baseline performance level despite Glinka having less recorded grass experience. Harris does have documented grass experience which narrows Glinka's advantage, but Glinka's superior win-loss profile and the fact both reached the final (showing recent form) suggest the market is overpricing Harris. We estimate Glinka's true chance at 43.0%, which implies fair odds of 2.326. At the available price of 2.57 this represents positive expected value (EV = 0.43 * 2.57 - 1 ≈ 0.105). Therefore we recommend the home side if the quoted price is around 2.57 or better; if prices tighten below the min_required_decimal_odds (2.326) the value disappears.

Key factors

• • Glinka's superior overall win-loss record (37-21) versus Harris (34-41)
• • Market strongly favors Harris (implied ~65%) despite Glinka's better career win rate
• • Surface: grass favors Harris marginally (has grass experience) but does not offset Glinka's performance differential