Highlights

• • Away implied probability 56.5% vs our estimate 55% → small negative edge at 1.77
• • Home would need odds ≥ 2.222 to be profitable under our conservative estimate

Pros

• + Market pricing is close to our probability estimate — suggests efficient market
• + We apply conservative assumptions due to missing research, avoiding overconfidence

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) increases model uncertainty
• - Both sides offer negative EV at current widely-available prices

Details

We have no independent match data returned by research, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The market prices are Home 2.00 (implied 50.0%) and Away 1.77 (implied 56.5%). Based on limited information and a conservative edge estimate, we assign Hamish Stewart (away) an estimated true win probability of 55.0% (0.55) — slightly lower than the market-implied 56.5%. At the quoted away price 1.77, EV = 0.55 * 1.77 - 1 = -0.0265 (≈ -2.65% ROI), so the price offers negative expected value. For the home side our conservative estimate is 45.0% (0.45), which at 2.00 yields EV = 0.45 * 2.00 - 1 = -0.10 (≈ -10% ROI). Because neither side shows positive EV at current widely-available prices, we do not recommend a bet. To be profitable we would require at minimum decimal odds of 1.818 or higher on the away player given our probability estimate (1 / 0.55 = 1.818), or 2.222 or higher on the home player (1 / 0.45 = 2.222).

Key factors

• • No external match/injury/form data available — high information risk
• • Market currently prices away as the favorite (1.77), implying 56.5% win probability
• • Conservative estimated away probability (55%) is below market-implied, producing negative EV