Highlights

• • Market implies Glinka ~31.7% chance; our estimate is ~39%
• • Minimum fair odds for Glinka are ~2.564; current 3.15 exceeds that

Pros

• + Higher career win rate in provided data and proven hard-court experience
• + Current market price (3.15) offers a clear mathematical edge if our probability holds

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and potential data noise in recent-match stats increase uncertainty
• - Rodionov is the public favorite with strong market support and more total matches

Details

We believe the market is overestimating Jurij Rodionov here and underpricing Daniil Glinka. Glinka's career win rate (approx 64% from provided record) and primary experience on hard courts align with the Cassis surface, while Rodionov's implied market probability (about 74.6% at 1.34) appears steep relative to the available form/sample. Both players have recent Cassis results, but the historical win-rate differential and surface fit give Glinka a materially better chance than the 31.7% implied by 3.15. With our estimated true win probability for Glinka at 39.0%, the current decimal price 3.15 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.229 per 1 unit). We note uncertainty from limited head-to-head and some noisy stat lines in the data, so we treat this as a medium-risk value play rather than a certainty.

Key factors

• • Glinka's higher career win percentage on available data
• • Both players have recent matches at Cassis (hard court), favoring known hard-court experience
• • Market heavily favors Rodionov (implied 74.6%), creating potential overlay on Glinka