Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Antonelli: ~69%
• • Our conservative estimate for Antonelli: 65% → negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + We avoid taking a low-margin, information-poor favorite where market price is likely efficient
• + Piatrouski's recent form is weak, so a rebound on long odds could be possible if more information appears

Cons

• - Limited data on both players prevents confident identification of positive edge
• - If Antonelli is significantly stronger than our conservative estimate, missing a small positive edge is possible

Details

We compared market prices to a conservative estimate of true win probability for the market favorite (Away - Jacopo Antonelli). The away moneyline 1.45 implies a win probability of ~68.97%. Given the only concrete player data available is Daniil Piatrouski's limited record (1-2 across three low-level events, mixed surfaces) and no direct information on Antonelli, we adopt a cautious true probability for Antonelli of 65%. At that estimate the market price is too short (negative EV). Piatrouski's small sample size and recent losses suggest he is the underdog, but there is insufficient evidence to justify backing him at 2.60 as value. Therefore we recommend no bet — the favorite's price must be longer (>= 1.538) to offer positive EV under our estimate.

Key factors

• • Piatrouski has a very small, losing sample (1-2) at low-level events
• • Market heavily favors Antonelli (1.45) implying ~68.97% win probability
• • Insufficient public data on Antonelli and surface/conditions increases uncertainty