Daniil Glinka vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

Highlights

• • Market implies ~69% for Glinka but we estimate ~62% true probability
• • Fair odds for Glinka would be ~1.613; current 1.45 yields negative EV

Pros

• + Glinka's stronger career win rate and hard-court experience support him as favorite
• + Both players have recent match activity on hard courts, reducing uncertainty about surface form

Cons

• - Bookmaker price on Glinka is too short to offer positive expected value
• - Recent losses for both players limit confidence in a large deviation from market pricing

Details

We estimate Daniil Glinka is the pre-match favorite but is overpriced by the market. Glinka's career win rate (36-21, ~63%) is better than Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (35-31, ~53%) and both have recent hard-court activity, so a home favorite assessment is reasonable. The market gives Glinka decimal 1.45 (implied ~68.97%). Based on comparative records, surface familiarity and recent results for both players, we estimate Glinka's true win probability at ~62.0%, which implies fair odds of ~1.613. At the current price of 1.45 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.62*1.45 - 1 = -0.101), so there is no value on the favorite. The underdog (Pacheco Mendez at 2.60) would require an estimated win probability >= 38.46% to be fair; given his inferior career winning percentage and no clear edge on hard courts, we do not believe his true probability exceeds that level. Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Glinka has a stronger overall win rate (36-21, ~63%) versus Pacheco Mendez (35-31, ~53%)
• • Both players have hard-court experience; no clear surface advantage for the underdog
• • Market-implied probability for Glinka (≈69%) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%), indicating negative value
• • Recent results show both players with recent losses, reducing confidence in a sharp form-based adjustment