Highlights

• • Home implied by our model: 38% vs market-implied ~35.7%
• • Required odds to break even: 2.632; current 2.8 exceeds that

Pros

• + Clear positive EV under conservative probability assumptions
• + Odds margin over required threshold is meaningful (2.8 vs 2.632)

Cons

• - No available data on surface, injuries, recent form, or H2H — increases model uncertainty
• - Tennis match variance is high; single-match outcomes are noisy

Details

Market implies the away player is a clear favorite (1.4 -> ~71.4%). With no independent data available, we apply a conservative adjustment to the market and estimate the home player (Daniil Kakhniuk) has a higher true chance than the market implies (estimated 38%). That makes the home moneyline (2.8) offer positive expected value: EV = 0.38 * 2.8 - 1 = 0.064 (6.4% ROI). Key uncertainties (unknown surface, injuries, recent form, and no H2H data) increase variance, but the offered price contains enough margin versus our conservative probability to justify a value selection on the home player.

Key factors

• • Market-implied heavy favorite for away (1.4) may be overpricing favorite bias
• • No independent data on surface, injuries, form or H2H — we apply conservative adjustment
• • Tennis matches have high variance; underdogs often present value when odds > required threshold