Daniil Piatrouski vs Ahmed Zaki
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Ahmed Zaki at 1.75, estimating his true win probability at 62%, which yields an ~8.5% expected ROI; monitor odds moving below ~1.61 where value evaporates.
Highlights
- • Piatrouski has a short pro record (3 matches) and two recent losses.
- • Current away price 1.75 offers positive EV given our 62% win estimate.
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price (8.5% ROI).
- + Market margin suggests the favorite is undervalued relative to available form signals.
Cons
- - Very limited data on both players in the provided research; high variance in estimate.
- - No detailed info on Ahmed Zaki, surface, or match conditions—elevates risk of estimate error.
Details
We assess value on Ahmed Zaki (away). The market prices Zaki at 1.75 (implied ~57.1%). Daniil Piatrouski's limited pro sample (3 matches) and recent form (1-2 career record with two recent losses) suggest he is vulnerable rather than a strong home favorite; that weak sample increases variance but leans toward the away player being the cleaner pick. Given the market margin and available information, we estimate Zaki's true win probability higher than the market-implied 57.1% (we estimate 62%), which produces positive expected value at the quoted 1.75 price. Calculation: EV = 0.62 * 1.75 - 1 = 0.085 (8.5% ROI). We prefer Zaki only because current odds exceed our minimum required price (1.613) for that win probability; if odds move below ~1.61 value disappears. Key uncertainties are the very small sample for Piatrouski, unknown matchup specifics, and venue/surface details not provided.
Key factors
- • Piatrouski's limited pro experience (3 matches) and 1-2 record indicates volatility and recent underperformance
- • Market-implied probability for Zaki (1.75 -> ~57.1%) appears lower than our estimated true win chance (62%)
- • Small-sample data and unknowns (surface, injuries, head-to-head) increase uncertainty despite apparent value