Highlights

• • Market favorite (Silva) priced at 1.52 implies ~65.8%, which exceeds our conservative 60% true estimate
• • Both sides produce negative EV under our estimates (Silva ≈ -8.8% ROI, Havermans ≈ -4.0% ROI)

Pros

• + Conservative probability reduces risk of overestimating the favorite without data
• + Clear break-even threshold provided (1.667) for the favorite to become a value bet

Cons

• - No granular info on surface, recent form, injuries or H2H to refine probability
• - Market overround (~7.5%) inflates implied probabilities and reduces apparent value

Details

We adopt a conservative approach because no external form, surface, injury, or H2H data are available. The market currently prices the away player (Johanna Silva) as the clear favorite at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%) and Danique Havermans as the underdog at 2.40 (implied ~41.7%). Lacking specific evidence to materially move probabilities away from a market-informed prior, we shrink toward a more cautious estimate: we estimate Johanna Silva's true win probability at 60% (0.60) and Danique Havermans at 40% (0.40). At those estimated probabilities the current odds offer negative expected value for both sides: Silva EV = 0.60*1.52 - 1 = -0.088 (≈ -8.8% ROI) and Havermans EV = 0.40*2.40 - 1 = -0.04 (≈ -4.0% ROI). Given both sides are negative by our conservative assessment, we do not recommend a bet. If market odds move above our minimum required decimal odds (1.667 for our 60% estimate), the favorite would become a value play.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury or H2H data available — we use conservative, market-informed priors
• • Market implies Johanna Silva ~65.8% and Danique Havermans ~41.7%; book overround ~7.5%
• • Our shrinkage-adjusted estimate (Silva 60%) produces negative EV at available prices