Highlights

• • Market-implied win chance for home: ~57.8% (1.73)
• • Our estimated true chance for home: 52% → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Market pricing is clear and stable (readily available odds)
• + Both players' profiles give a straightforward, conservative estimate without hidden information

Cons

• - No discernible edge in form, surface preference, or injuries from the provided research
• - Book overround (~7.6%) makes marginal markets less attractive

Details

We believe the market prices the home player (Khomutsianskaya) as a clear favorite (1.73 -> implied ~57.8%) but the available background shows nearly identical career records and recent results for both players with no clear form, surface, or injury edge. Given the limited and symmetric data, we estimate Khomutsianskaya's true win probability around 52%, well below the market-implied 57.8%, so there is no positive expected value at the provided prices. The book's overround (~7.6%) and small-sample noise further reduce confidence in finding value here.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.73) is substantially higher than our estimated true probability
• • No clear surface, injury, or head-to-head edge present in the research