Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 61.9% (1/1.617)
• • Our conservative estimate for home: 60.0% -> required fair odds 1.667 (market 1.617 yields negative EV)

Pros

• + Market price is close to our conservative estimate — low chance of being mispriced
• + Match priced efficiently given available information

Cons

• - No clear edge — small negative EV for the favorite at current odds
• - Lack of surface, form or injury data increases uncertainty

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.617 -> implied 61.9%) to a conservative estimated true probability for the home player of 60.0%. With no external form, injury or H2H data available, we default to a conservative projection that slightly favors the home player but not enough to overcome the bookmaker's margin. At our 60.0% estimate the required fair decimal price is ~1.667; the current price of 1.617 is lower than that fair price, producing a small negative expected value. The away price (2.20) would require an estimated away win probability of ~45.5% to be fair; our conservative view assigns the away ~40.0%, which similarly produces negative EV. Given the lack of additional information and the bookmaker prices, we do not see positive expected value on either side.

Key factors

• • No external form, injury, surface or H2H data available — we use conservative priors
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.617) is ~61.9%, close to our 60.0% estimate
• • Small difference between our probability and the market results in negative EV at current prices