Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Louna Zoppas
Tennis
2025-09-13 04:13
Start: 2025-09-13 14:00
Summary
No pick
EV: -0.129
Current Odds
Home 1.26|Away 3.74
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Daria Khomutsianskaya_Louna Zoppas_2025-09-13
Analysis
Summary: We find no value: the favorite is overpriced by the market relative to a conservative 70% true probability, so we recommend no bet at current odds.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability at 1.245 is ~80.3%
- • Our conservative true probability estimate is 70% → required odds ~1.429
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a favorite, making the match one-sided in price
- + If additional unlisted info (injury, strong head-to-head) exists, market may be correct
Cons
- - Available public data does not justify the heavy favorite price
- - Negative expected value at current odds for the home side
Details
We see both players with nearly identical, limited ITF records and no clear edge in the provided data. The market strongly favors the home player at 1.245 (implied ~80.3%), which implies a much larger gap than the available information justifies. Conservatively estimating the true win probability for the home player at 70% (0.70) yields a required decimal price of ~1.429 to break even. At the current price of 1.245 the expected value is negative, so there is no value bet here.
Key factors
- • Both players show similar limited ITF records and recent form in the provided data
- • Market heavily favors the home player to a degree not supported by the available stats
- • No H2H, injury, or surface edge provided to justify a >80% market probability