Highlights

• • Research shows equivalent records and recent form for both players
• • Market price (~1.14 for home) appears drastically overstated relative to available data

Pros

• + Large gap between book odds and our estimated true probability yields strong positive EV
• + Away stake benefits from market mispricing when both players look comparable in the supplied data

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, ranking, or clear surface/venue context — uncertainty remains
• - Positive EV here depends on the assumption that the supplied data captures the meaningful differences; if unseen factors favor the home player, the bet is vulnerable

Details

The market makes Daria Khomutsianskaya an overwhelming favorite at decimal 1.14 (implied ~87.7%), but the available research shows essentially matched player profiles: identical career spans, identical 10-21 records, similar recent results and surfaces. There is no evidence in the provided material of a gap that justifies an 87% win probability for the home player. Conservatively estimating Mariam Atia's true win probability at 40% (0.40) reflects parity between the players with a modest edge to the listed favorite being unjustified by the data. At the current away price of 5.0 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 5.0 - 1 = 1.00). We therefore recommend the away side as a value play given the large disconnect between market odds and our data-driven probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical records and recent results in the provided research (10-21), indicating parity
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite (home) is extremely high (~87.7%) and unsupported by supplied data
• • No head-to-head, injury, or surface advantage information in the sources to justify the heavy favorite pricing