Highlights

• • Both players: 10-21 record per provided profiles
• • Current decimal odds for Daria (2.14) exceed our fair threshold (2.00)

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at the quoted home price (approx +7% ROI)
• + Available information in research does not justify Sandra being a >60% favorite

Cons

• - Very limited and noisy data — small sample size and sparse match context
• - No H2H, injury, or court-specific form to confirm our neutral probability — market may be pricing unreported factors

Details

We compare the market price to our estimate of the true win probability. The research shows both players with essentially identical career records and recent form (each listed 10-21 across clay and hard), with no H2H or injury information to separate them. The market makes Sandra Samir a clear favorite (implied ~61.1%) while Daria Khomutsianskaya is priced at 2.14 (implied ~46.7%). Given the symmetry of the available data (equal records, similar surface history) we assign a neutral/fair probability of 50% to Daria. That 50% true probability requires minimum fair odds of 2.00; the current available price of 2.14 therefore offers positive expected value. Using the current odds (2.14) gives EV = 0.5 * 2.14 - 1 = +0.07 (7% ROI). We recommend backing Daria only because the market price appears to overstate Sandra’s advantage based on the limited data available.

Key factors

• • Both players shown with identical career records (10-21) and similar surface history in the research
• • Market strongly favors Sandra (implied ~61%) while available data does not justify that gap
• • No H2H, injury, or other separating information in the provided sources — forces a neutral 50% estimate