Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Yasmin Ezzat

Highlights

• • Market implies ~69% for the home player, which looks overstated given identical profiles
• • At 2.60 the away side yields positive EV under conservative probability assumptions

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.60) versus our probability model
• + Decision based on absence of distinguishing factors rather than speculation about form or injury

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head or granular match-level indicators increases uncertainty
• - If there is unreported contextual information (travel, local conditions, coaching changes) it could invalidate our parity assumption

Details

We see the market pricing Daria Khomutsianskaya as a clear favorite at 1.44 (implied ~69.4%). The research shows both players with nearly identical career spans, identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results on hard and clay with no injury reports or head-to-head data to separate them. Given near-identical profiles and no clear surface or form edge for the home player, a true win-probability closer to coin-flip territory is more realistic than the heavy favorite implied by 1.44. We conservatively estimate Yasmin Ezzat's true win probability at 45% (0.45). At the offered away price of 2.60 (odds used for EV), that implies a positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 2.60 - 1 = 0.17 (+17% ROI). The market appears to be overpricing the home-favorite margin relative to the limited evidence available, creating value on the away side. We prefer the away line only because current odds (2.60) exceed the minimum breakeven decimal (2.222) implied by our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical records and recent form in the provided data (10-21), so no clear quality edge
• • Market prices heavily favor the home player (1.44) despite lack of supporting differentiation in the research
• • No injuries, H2H, or surface-specific advantages in the supplied sources to justify the market gap