Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.405) ≈ 71% vs our estimate 53%
• • Fair odds for home at our estimate ≈ 1.887; current price is too short

Pros

• + Home player is the bookmaker favorite and may have a small edge
• + Both players' profiles and surfaces are comparable, reducing hidden-skill surprises

Cons

• - Insufficient evidence to justify the large favorite margin implied by 1.405
• - Both players are in poor recent form and lower-tier ITF matches are higher variance

Details

Bookmakers price Daria Yesypchuk as a strong favorite at 1.405 (implied ~71%), but the available performance data shows near-identical career records (both 10-21), similar surfaces played, and poor recent form for both players. There is no H2H or injury information to justify a ~71% true win probability for Yesypchuk; we estimate a much smaller edge for the home player (53%). At our estimated true probability the fair odds would be ~1.887; the current favorite price of 1.405 is too short and offers negative expected value. Conversely, the away price (2.69) looks superficially tempting but there is not enough evidence to confidently assign the higher true probability required to justify backing Milanese. Therefore we recommend taking no side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and sample sizes
• • Recent form: both showing consecutive losses at comparable events
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home (71%) appears overstated versus available evidence