Daria Zelinskaya vs JiaYi Wang

Highlights

• • Our model estimates JiaYi Wang win probability ~52%
• • Required fair price for value on JiaYi Wang is ~1.923; market offers 1.73

Pros

• + Both players' profiles and results are available and consistent, enabling a conservative probability estimate
• + Market price clearly identifies a favorite, making the value comparison straightforward

Cons

• - Profiles and recent-match data are sparse and largely identical, limiting confidence
• - No head-to-head, detailed surface breakdown, or injury information provided to create a decisive edge

Details

Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the supplied profiles, with no clear surface or injury advantage. The market prices JiaYi Wang as the favorite at 1.73 (implied ~57.8%) while Daria Zelinskaya is 2.01 (implied ~49.8%). After adjusting for the limited information and tournament neutrality, we estimate JiaYi Wang is slightly more likely to win (52%) but that probability does not justify the offered decimal price of 1.73. At our estimated true probability (0.52) the fair decimal price would be ~1.923, so the current favorite price of 1.73 represents negative expected value. Therefore we recommend no bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have near-identical career records and the supplied recent-match snippets show no clear performance gap
• • Market favorite (Away at 1.73) implies a probability higher than our model but still does not offer positive EV at our estimate
• • No surface, injury or head-to-head edge is present in the provided research to materially shift probabilities