Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~89.3% vs our estimate 52%
• • Breakeven odds for value on Zelinskaya would be ~1.923 — current market is well below that

Pros

• + Clear conclusion: huge market margin implies no bet should be placed at 1.12
• + Conservative, data-driven estimate avoids overbetting on an unsupported favorite

Cons

• - Research is limited: no H2H, ranking, or in-tournament form details to tighten probability estimate
• - If there are unseen factors (injury, late withdrawal, ranking disparities not included in the research) our parity-based estimate could be off

Details

We find no value on either side. The public price (Home 1.12, implied probability ≈ 89.3%) is massively out of line with the available performance data: both players show identical career spans and identical 10-21 records across hard and clay with similar recent results, so there is no clear on-paper reason to favor Daria Zelinskaya at near-90% probability. Given the parity in records and surfaces and no reported injuries or H2H advantage in the provided research, a more realistic true win probability for the home player is close to coin-flip/slight edge (we model 52% for Zelinskaya). At that true probability the breakeven decimal price is ~1.923, far above the offered 1.12, so the market is overpriced on the favorite and offers negative expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical documented records (10-21) and similar recent results in the research
• • Both have experience on hard and clay; no clear surface advantage is provided
• • Bookmaker price for the home player (1.12) implies ~89% win chance, which is inconsistent with the comparable records