Highlights

• • Anamaria's documented win rate (~32%) contradicts a 97% market probability.
• • Home at 12.50 yields estimated EV of +0.50 (50% ROI) given our 12% upset probability.

Pros

• + Large decimal price (12.50) creates substantial upside if our conservative probability is correct.
• + Documented recent poor form for Anamaria supports the argument that she is beatable.

Cons

• - Very limited information on the home player raises model uncertainty and variance.
• - Pricing may reflect inside information or conditions not present in the provided research—possibility market is correct.

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 12.50 -> implied 8.00%, Away 1.03 -> implied 97.09%) to what the available performance data imply. Anamaria Federica Oana's documented career win rate (10 wins in 31 matches ≈ 32%) and recent form (multiple recent losses, including wildcard defeats) do not support a ~97% true-win probability. There is high uncertainty because we have no profile or form data for Daria Ioana Pastoric, but the market's near-certain pricing for Anamaria appears inflated. Conservatively, we estimate Pastoric's chance around 12%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 8% for the 12.50 quote, producing positive expected value. At the current home price of 12.50 (odds_used_for_ev = 12.5) EV = 0.12 * 12.5 - 1 = 0.50 (50% ROI). Given the mismatch between Anamaria's documented win rate and the bookmaker-implied probability, plus recent poor form for Anamaria, we find value on the home upset at 12.50 despite high variance and uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Market implies Anamaria win probability ~97.09% (1.03 decimal) which is inconsistent with her career win rate
• • Anamaria career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and recent losses reduce confidence in near-certainty
• • No available profile or results for Daria Ioana Pastoric increases uncertainty and suggests bookmakers may be overpricing Anamaria
• • Current home price 12.50 implies 8.00% — significantly higher than our conservative 12% estimate for an upset