Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sarafina Olivia Hansen

Highlights

• • Khoutsianskaya's documented career win rate is low (10-21).
• • Current market implies ~91% chance for the favorite — far above our estimate.

Pros

• + Market extreme could indicate an opportunity if additional positive information on the favorite appeared (not present in Research).
• + If opponent is significantly weaker (unknown), price might be more justified — but we lack data to assume that.

Cons

• - Provided data shows poor recent form and low overall win rate.
• - Implied market pricing leaves no margin for value — EV strongly negative at current odds.

Details

The market prices Daria Khomutsianskaya at 1.10 (implied win probability ~90.9%). From the provided career/profile data, Khomutsianskaya has a 10-21 record (≈32% career win rate across 31 matches) and recent results show multiple losses in Challenger/ITF-level events through early September. There is no information about Sarafina Olivia Hansen in the Research, so we conservatively estimate Khomutsianskaya's true win probability materially below the market-implied level. Using a cautious estimated true probability of 0.33 (33%), the minimum fair decimal odds to offer positive EV would be ≈3.03. At the quoted price of 1.10 (odds_used_for_ev = 1.1) the expected return is strongly negative (EV = 0.33 * 1.10 - 1 = -0.637). Given that price, there is no value on the favorite and we therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Player form and record: 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) and recent run of losses
• • Market extreme pricing: home priced at 1.10 (implied ~90.9%), which is far above our estimate
• • Lack of opponent data: no information on Sarafina Hansen in Research increases uncertainty; we therefore use conservative probability