Daria Yesypchuk vs Holly Hutchinson
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the away player, Holly Hutchinson, at 2.73 because the market overstates the favorite; our 40% probability for Hutchinson yields a positive EV of ~0.092 per unit staked.
Highlights
- • Market implied away probability = 36.6%; we estimate 40%
- • Min required odds for value = 2.50; current quote 2.73 > required
Pros
- + Clear numerical edge on value when using conservative true probability estimate
- + Both players' records and surfaces don't justify the large market gap
Cons
- - Small-sample ITF data and volatile form make estimates uncertain
- - No head-to-head or venue-specific data to strongly differentiate players
Details
The market prices Daria Yesypchuk at 1.395 (implied ~71.8%) and Holly Hutchinson at 2.73 (implied ~36.6%). The research shows both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces, with no clear injury or head-to-head advantages evident. We believe the market overstates the gap in quality — a fair true probability split is closer to 60/40 in favor of the listed favorite rather than ~72/28. Using an estimated true probability for Hutchinson of 40% against the offered decimal 2.73 produces positive expected value (EV = 0.40 * 2.73 - 1 = 0.092). Therefore we recommend backing the away player only because the underdog price (2.73) offers value versus our estimated 40% win chance. Calculations: market implied away probability = 1/2.73 = 0.366; our estimated true probability = 0.400; min required odds for value = 1/0.400 = 2.500; EV at current odds = 0.400*2.73 - 1 = 0.092.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical season records (both 10-21) and comparable match volume
- • Recent form shows losses for both players; no clear momentum advantage
- • Surface experience appears similar (both have clay and hard court matches)
- • Market implies a much larger gap than the available evidence supports