Daria Yesypchuk vs Lamis Alhussein Abdel Aziz

Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability 35.2% vs our estimate 46%
• • Fair odds needed for value: ≥2.174; current price 2.84

Pros

• + Large margin between our fair odds and the market price
• + No clear data-driven disadvantage in the provided research

Cons

• - Limited dataset and truncated recent-match details increase uncertainty
• - No head-to-head, injury, or contextual tournament info provided to refine the model

Details

We find value on Daria Yesypchuk at 2.84. The market-implied probability for the home side is 0.352 (1/2.84), which overstates the gap between these players given the available research: both players show identical career spans, identical 10-21 records, similar surface experience (clay and hard) and similarly poor recent form. There is no clear surface or injury edge shown in the provided data and no head-to-head or contextual advantage for the away player to justify a ~72% market probability. We estimate a more balanced true win probability for Daria at 46%, which implies required fair decimal odds of 2.174; the offered 2.84 therefore produces a positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * decimal_odds - 1 = 0.46 * 2.84 - 1 = 0.306 (30.6% ROI on a single unit). We used the quoted current home price (2.84) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical 10-21 career records and similar career timelines
• • Both have recent poor form; no clear recent performance edge for the away player
• • Both have experience on clay and hard courts — no surface advantage apparent