Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 80.0% at 1.25
• • Our estimated true probability: 60%, requiring ≥1.667 decimal odds for positive EV

Pros

• + Ciobotaru has clay match experience listed in recent results
• + Home is the market favourite, indicating perceived edge

Cons

• - Very limited and mixed recent form (1-3) reduces confidence in a high win probability
• - No data provided on opponent (Nereo Suarez) to justify the short market price

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.25 -> implied 80.0%) to our estimated true win probability for Dario Alexandru Ciobotaru. The provided career/recent-data shows a very small sample (4 matches, 1-3) with mixed results on clay in early 2025 and no information on the opponent. Given limited sample size but some clay experience, we estimate Ciobotaru's true win probability at 60%. At the current decimal price of 1.25 the expected return would be 0.60 * 1.25 - 1 = -0.25 (a -25% ROI), so the favourite is overpriced by the market for staking purposes. The minimum fair decimal odds to make a bet profitable at our probability is 1 / 0.60 = 1.667. Because the current market is significantly shorter than that, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Very small and recent sample for Ciobotaru (4 matches, 1-3) limits confidence
• • Matches listed are on clay, which is the surface Ciobotaru has experience on
• • Market price (1.25) implies ~80% win chance, which exceeds our estimated 60% probability