Highlights

• • Market implied probability 76.2% vs our estimate 78%
• • EV ≈ 0.023 (2.3% ROI) at current odds 1.312

Pros

• + Clear experience and results advantage for Marinescu
• + Current odds offer a small positive expected value

Cons

• - Neither player has documented grass form in the provided data, increasing result variance
• - Edge is modest; outcome still sensitive to match-day factors and limited totals for Pop

Details

We project Mihai Razvan Marinescu as the clear favorite based on substantially greater match experience (45 matches vs 9) and a far stronger win record (21-24 vs 2-7). Darius Florin Pop’s limited sample size and poor recent results reduce confidence in an upset; neither player shows grass-specific form in the provided data, which slightly increases variance but does not offset the experience gap. The market price for Marinescu (1.312, implied 76.2%) is slightly shorter than our estimated true win probability (78%), producing a small but positive edge. Using EV = p * odds - 1 with p = 0.78 and current decimal odds = 1.312 yields EV ≈ 0.023, so the away side offers modest value at available prices.

Key factors

• • Marinescu has much larger match sample and better win total than Pop
• • Pop’s recent results (2-7) indicate poor form and limited experience
• • No grass-specific track record for either player increases variance
• • Market-implied probability (76.2%) is slightly below our 78% estimate