Darja Semenistaja vs Anouk Koevermans
Tennis
2025-09-11 20:27
Start: 2025-09-12 13:00
Summary
Pick: away
EV: 0.224
Current Odds
Home 1.5|Away 2.55
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Darja Semenistaja_Anouk Koevermans_2025-09-12
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles and no injuries, the away price of 2.55 looks to offer value versus a realistic ~48% win chance.
Highlights
- • Profiles and recent form are essentially even — market likely overstating favorite
- • Away implied probability (39%) is markedly lower than our 48% estimate
Pros
- + Clear value exists if true probabilities are near even
- + Current price (2.55) offers a solid positive EV under conservative probability assumptions
Cons
- - Limited data and no H2H, ranking or surface edge in the provided sources
- - If there is unreported information (injury, local conditions), our parity assumption could be wrong
Details
We view the market as overstating the favorite. Both players have near-identical career records (10-21) and recent form on hard and clay, with no clear injury or head-to-head edge in the provided data. The book price of 1.50 for the home player implies a 66.7% win probability, which is inconsistent with the parity shown in the player profiles. We estimate the away player’s true win probability at 48%, which makes the available decimal price of 2.55 attractive (implied 39.2%). Using that estimate, the wager has positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
- • No reported injuries or other differentiators in the research
- • Market pricing (home 1.50) appears to overstate the home advantage given parity