Highlights

• • Todoni's career win rate materially higher than Semenistaja's limited sample
• • Current price (1.746) implies slightly less probability than our estimate, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available odds
• + Experience and surface versatility advantage for Todoni

Cons

• - Recent form for both players includes losses; short-term volatility could negate edge
• - Semenistaja's limited match volume increases variance and unpredictability

Details

We see clear value on Anca Alexia Todoni at the current moneyline. Todoni's long career record (559-507) and broader success across surfaces suggests a materially higher baseline win probability than Darja Semenistaja's 10-21 record over a much smaller sample. Recent form entries for both players show losses, but the depth, experience and overall win rate favor Todoni. The market implies ~57.3% for Todoni (1/1.746) while our assessed true win probability is ~60%, producing a positive expected value. We account for bookmaker margin and limited sample noise for Semenistaja, but the quoted away price (1.746) still offers a small edge versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Todoni's much larger career sample and higher overall win rate (559-507) vs Semenistaja (10-21)
• • Both players show recent losses but experience gap favors Todoni in pressure moments (QF)
• • Book market implies ~57.3% for Todoni; our assessment is ~60% creating positive EV
• • Surface versatility advantage for Todoni (multiple surfaces) vs Semenistaja (limited)