Darja Vidmanova vs Nikola Bartunkova

Highlights

• • Both players have identical records and recent results in the provided research
• • Current favorite odds (1.55) require Vidmanova to be substantially better than the data suggests to be +EV

Pros

• + Market offers a clear favorite which would be actionable if a stronger edge existed
• + Surface exposure for both players includes hard and clay, so no obvious mismatch

Cons

• - Players' profiles and recent results are effectively indistinguishable in the available data
• - At 1.55 the favorite needs a much higher true probability than we estimate to be profitable

Details

We find no positive value on either side. The market prices Darja Vidmanova as a clear favorite at 1.55 (implied ~64.5%), but the available evidence shows both players with nearly identical profiles (10-21 records, same recent results and surfaces). There is no clear form, surface, injury, or head-to-head edge in the provided research to justify a market-beating edge for Vidmanova. We estimate Vidmanova's true win probability at ~53%, which implies required odds of ~1.887 to breakeven; the current price of 1.55 produces a negative expected return. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent match results (10-21) in the provided research
• • No injury, clear surface or form advantage for either player in the available information
• • Market favorite price (1.55) implies a much higher probability than our estimated true chance, producing negative EV