Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Darrshan (≈79.4%) exceeds our estimate (75%)
• • Limited data and no available info on the opponent reduce confidence in taking the short price

Pros

• + Darrshan has recent clay experience and is the clear favorite in the market
• + Some recent wins indicate capability to advance in this level of event

Cons

• - Very small match sample and mixed results reduce certainty of a >79% true win chance
• - Current price (1.26) offers negative expected value against our estimated probability

Details

We compared the market price (Darrshan Suresh 1.26) to our realistic win estimate. Darrshan has limited recent match data on clay with a mixed 2-2 record in a very small sample; that suggests he is a clear favorite but not overwhelmingly so. We estimate his true win probability around 75%, which implies a fair decimal price of ~1.333. The current market price (1.26, implied ~79.4%) is shorter than our fair price, producing a small negative expected value. With limited information on Debasis Sahoo and no injury or H2H details available, there is insufficient evidence to justify backing the short-priced favorite at 1.26.

Key factors

• • Small sample size and mixed recent form for Darrshan (2-2) limits confidence in an extremely high win probability
• • Surface alignment: Darrshan has clay match experience, which supports favoritism but not a >79% implied certainty
• • Market price (1.26) implies a higher probability than our estimate, removing value at available odds