Highlights

• • Current odds for Astakhova (4.82) exceed the break-even odds required by our model (4.545).
• • Edge is modest and driven by Astakhova's higher-than-implied upset probability given limited sample volatility.

Pros

• + Clear quantitative edge at current market price (EV ~6%).
• + Astakhova's limited match sample creates higher variance and upside in a single-match upset scenario.

Cons

• - Todoni's experience and larger career win base materially reduce the probability of an upset.
• - Both players show recent mixed/poor form, increasing outcome variance and match unpredictability.

Details

The market prices Anca Todoni as an overwhelming favorite at 1.216 (implied ~82.2%). Our read of the provided profiles suggests a much smaller gap: Darya Astakhova has a career win rate around 32% over 31 matches, while Todoni is a veteran with a ~52% career win rate. Given Astakhova's limited sample size and occasional strong serve metrics shown in recent lines, we believe her true chance in a single-match R16 WTA 125 tie is higher than the market-implied 20.7%. We estimate Astakhova's true win probability at 22.0%, which requires minimum decimal odds of 4.545 to break even; the available price of 4.82 therefore offers positive expected value. We factor in surface versatility for both players, recent poor form for both, and a large experience gap favoring Todoni (which reduces our confidence), but the size of the market discount on Astakhova still produces a modest edge at current odds.

Key factors

• • Large market favorite (Todoni) implies 82% win probability; we estimate lower (Todoni ~78%, Astakhova ~22%)
• • Astakhova's small sample career win-rate (~32%) and recent serve metrics suggest higher-than-implied upset potential
• • Todoni's clear experience advantage and higher career volume reduce confidence in an upset but are likely priced into short odds