Darya Velikova vs Sofya Gapankova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Bookmaker price for Velikova is heavily inflated relative to her documented form and career win rate; no value exists at 1.109 so we recommend not betting.
Highlights
- • Velikova's documented career record (10-21) and recent losses point to a low true win probability (~33%).
- • Current market implies ~90% chance for Velikova; that price offers large negative EV.
Pros
- + Home favorite has an extremely short price which would be attractive only if backed by strong data (not present).
- + If unknown opponent is markedly weaker (not shown), the market price would be justified—this is the only potential upside not in evidence.
Cons
- - Documented win rate and recent form do not support a 90% implied probability.
- - Significant discrepancy between market odds and our estimate creates large negative expected value for betting the favorite.
Details
We estimate Darya Velikova does not represent 90% probability implied by the 1.109 moneyline. Her career record in the provided data is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with poor recent form shown by multiple recent losses. The bookmaker's decimal 1.109 implies an implied win probability of ~90.1% (1 / 1.109 = 0.901). Comparing that to our estimated true win probability of 33% yields a large negative expected value for backing the favorite: EV = 0.33 * 1.109 - 1 = -0.634. Given the lack of any supporting research showing dominant results, favorable matchup, or injury to the opponent, we cannot justify taking the 1.109 line. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Provided career win-loss 10-21 (~32% win rate)
- • Recent match list indicates multiple recent losses and weak recent form
- • Market price (1.109) implies ~90% win chance, which is inconsistent with available performance data