Highlights

• • Samir's supplied career record and recent results point to much lower win probability than market implies
• • Current odds produce a strongly negative EV at our estimated true probability

Pros

• + Bookmaker market strongly favors Samir, indicating a clear market consensus
• + If undisclosed factors (withdrawal/injury) are confirmed, the market price could be justified

Cons

• - Quoted prices (1.01) leave no room for value unless Samir's true win chance is >99%, which the supplied data do not support
• - Lack of information on the home player (Darya Volkova) and match context increases uncertainty

Details

We find no value on either side given the provided prices. The market has Sandra Samir at an extreme short price (1.01) vs Darya Volkova at 11.0. Using only the supplied information, Samir's listed career record (10-21 across 31 matches) and the recent-match snippets show weak recent form rather than dominance; this implies a win probability far below the implied market probability (~99%). We estimate Samir's true win probability at 35% based on her career win rate and recent results in the research. At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds for a positive expectation are ~2.857. The current quoted odds for Samir (1.01) produce a large negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1), so we cannot recommend backing either side. The price skew likely reflects an information anomaly (withdrawal/forfeit report, severe mismatch not in the supplied data, or a market error), but we cannot confirm that from the research provided — therefore we decline to bet.

Key factors

• • Sandra Samir's documented career record is poor (10-21) and recent-match snippets show multiple losses
• • Market price (1.01) implies ~99% win probability which is inconsistent with Samir's documented form
• • No verifiable information provided on Darya Volkova or any match-specific context (injury, walkover, surface advantage)