Highlights

• • Implied probability on away is ~74.6% vs our estimated ~50%
• • Home price (2.96) requires only ~33.8% win probability to be +EV; we estimate ~50%

Pros

• + Substantial positive EV at the current home price
• + Decision grounded on parity in provided performance data and lack of differentiators

Cons

• - Limited dataset and no H2H or deeper context — small-sample risk
• - If there are off-data factors (injury, last-minute withdrawal, home/away conditions) not provided, edge may evaporate

Details

We find clear value backing the home player, Dasha Ivanova. The market prices Sahaja Yamalapalli as a heavy favorite (implied win probability ~74.6% at 1.341) despite both players showing essentially identical profiles in the provided data: same career span, identical overall records (10-21), similar surfaces played, and comparable recent results. With no injury flags, no meaningful surface advantage, and no H2H provided, the parsimonious assumption is that their true chances are close to even. At a conservative estimated true probability of 50% for Ivanova, the offered home price of 2.96 produces a large positive edge (EV = 0.48). Therefore we recommend the home moneyline as a value bet at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Both players have near-identical records (10-21) and surfaces played in the provided data
• • No injury or fitness concerns reported and no decisive form advantage in recent results
• • Market heavily favors the away player despite lack of supporting differentiation in available data